Syria…The Post-Settlement Scenarios

On the 26^th  of September 2018, The Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, in coordinate with The Egyptian Center for Kurdish Studies, held a Seminar entitled “Syria… The Post-Settlement Scenarios”. This Seminar was attended by an Elite of  Ambassadors, Academics and Researchers on the Syrian and Arabian affairs, and opened  by Ambassador Dr. Mounir Zahran the Chairman of the Council. During its four sessions, the speakers spoke in the following order:

• Ambassador Hazem Khairat, Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs  and former Ambassador of  Egypt to Syria , spoke on “The internal situation…after the ending of the war” .

• Mohamed Badr El-Din Zayed, member of the Egyptian council for Foreign Affairs, spoke on “Syria in Its Arabic area”.

• Rajaei Fayed, member of The Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs and Chair of The Egyptian Center for Kurdish Studies, spoke on “Syria in its regional area… Turkey/ Iran/ Israel”.

• Professor Dr.Gamal Abdel Gawad, Professor of Political Sciences in The American University and the Advisor of Al-Ahram Center for Political studies, spoke on “The Attitudes of  International Parties: Russia/ USA/ The European Union”.

In conclusion, Mrs. Elham Ahmed, Co-Chair of the Syrian Democratic Council, and The Chairman of the Negotiating Committee with the Syrian Government on the Future of Syria in general and the Northern District in particular (The Kurds’ Districts or the so-called “North Syrian Federation” or “Rojava” in Kurdish language), commented via Skype followed by the commentary of Ambassador  Sayed Abo Zayed, Member of the Council, then the discussion was held.

Through the submitted documents, all issues currently related to the Syrian affair have been reviewed. These issues included the internal situations, the role of  Regional and International Powers in the Syrian crisis, as well as attempting to predict the future of  the crisis and providing several scenarios relevant to this respect. In general, there was an agreement in the view points of  the participating parties over several points, including:

• The Syrian crisis is one of the most complex crisis that currently the Arab Region suffered from it. And that the Post-Settlement Period shall have a large effect on the future of The Middle East Region, and that is due to the relative weight that Syria has in one form or another at the regional level.

• The Developing of situation in Syria related with the weakness of agents, who work for the competing powers involved in the crisis (Except in the case of the Syrian Kurdish faction who still has clear targets and visions). The conflict has currently become direct between these powers, in other words between The USA, Russia, Turkey and Iran. And that is fraught with the current complexities of  the crisis as each party attempts achieving its own Agenda that contradicts those of the rest. Those Agendas are, of course, contrast with the interest of Syrian People and their suffering.

• Under these current complex situations, it seems difficult to reach a conclusive and satisfactory settlement of the Syrian Crisis in the short run or even over the medium term. It should also be emphasized that while settlement is unlikely, escalation is unlikely as well, as it would be very costly. In this context, status quo in Syria may be imagined as an in-between stage (neither settlement nor escalation).

• The international Community has double standards in dealing with the situation in Afrin compared to its dealing with the one in Idlib, as it is refraining from taking any action against Turkey in Afrin which is witnessing several massacres over its land, while pointing out to the Turkish Russian Agreement on Idlib. The explanation raised to justify this is: “ It is not possible to strike it due to the humanitarian status over there”.

• The Syrian democratic Forces are innocent of the charges accusing them of threatening the unity of Syrian Lands and the safety of Syrian People, and was it not for the role it played in partnership with The Popular Mobilization Forces Al-Asad Regime would not have been able to regain its influence and authority over several Syrian territories, and those areas would have completely become a hotbed for terrorist factions that would be manipulated by Regional Countries, and especially by the Turkish State, and those areas would have also been under the influence of Turkey which is imposing its authority over Afrin as a De Facto.

• Within that same context, Mrs. Elham affirmed that Syrian Forces believe the solution returns to the Syrian Regime and to the extent of its will to perform a real Democratic process in the Country, and she is ready for that since the beginning of the crisis and till now. She is as well for the Syrian-Syrian dialogue, the Syrian solution, and against external intervention, and for Syria to be decentralized, with the consideration that the Nomination- whether it be a Federation or others- does not matter, and this matter is subject to the negotiations in case it has been resorted to the dialogue within the framework of the settlement process

• Finally, and originating from the Principles of the clear Egyptian Foreign Policy concerned with preserving the unity and safety of  The Syrian Territories, as well as originating from the Cultural, Historical and Passion bonds that bring both Countries together; the participants agreed on the pivotal and significant role Egypt can play in the attempts to settle the Syrian crisis. The participants had the consensus that there is a Regional, International and even a local Syrian will at both the official and popular levels for Egypt to play its role therein.