Seminar on the developments of the situation in Sudan and its future consequences
On the 8th of October 2023, ECFA held a symposium entitled “The developments of the situation in Sudan and its future consequences”. The seminar is moderated by Ambassadors: Marwan Badr, Dr. Salah Halima. The speakers in the seminar are Dr. Amira Al Fadel Former Minister of Social Affairs and Development of Sudan, Kamal Hassan Ali Former Assistant Secretary General of the Arab League and Former Minster of Investment, Dr. Adel Abdel Aziz El Fiky Professor of Economics in Khartoum University and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Sudanese-Egyptian Integration (Sudanese NGO), Othman Merghany Editor –in-Chief of the Sudanese Newspaper Al-Tayar. Participated in the seminar number of Egyptian and Sudanese figures. In this symposium, Dr. Salah Halima presented an initiatives for the settlement of Sudanese conflict.
The Seminar addressed the following:
Affirmation about the importance of the symposium as it witnessed the participation of Egyptian and Sudanese civil society. It’s said that it’s important to find a peaceful solution, however this is not an easy situation as the initiatives didn’t lead to a positive impact. But, the initiative of the neighboring countries have a good chance to succeed as Egypt aware of the situation and it combines the neighboring countries. Also, there’s initiatives from Sudanese but this needs a comprehensive dialogue.
It’s important for all Sudanese actors to be involved in the settlement process to end the conflict and accepting the solutions that combine all parties. In order to reach a solution, there’s an issue which appears in the weakness of state and civil institutions and absence of clear vision for those who manage the conflict. For the transitional period, it’s important to prolong this period and to not proceed directly to the elections, to prevent any political conflicts in the recent time. After the transitional period, it’s important to conduct a national dialogue that don’t exempt any party.
There are three scenarios regarding the end of the conflict. First one is the end of the war and conducting a comprehensive political process, this is the hoped scenario. Second scenario is the end of the war and continuous of fragmentation with the possibility of existence of military dictatorship if the political parties didn’t promote for the democratization process. This is the most likely scenario. The third scenario is the worst one as it means the continuity of the war after 2023 and to lead to civil war and secession of north Sudan.
On the economic aspect of the conflict, there’s a lot of damage to the Sudanese infrastructure, losses for companies, destruction of around 80% of the industries, and losses for the macroeconomics especially public revenues and GDP. This is in addition to the displacement of Sudanese and being refugees in neighboring countries.
Concerning the reconstruction, it’s said that it’s the time to prepare for the reconstruction after 6 month of the conflict as this needs time from the international organizations. There’s reliance on the strategic framework of Arabic Food Security for the expansion of reclamation of agricultural land and improving production. This can be done in cooperation with Egypt as it has excellence in scientific research, human factor and agricultural techniques.
Concerning the situation in Sudan, there’s recommendation about the importance of having national media that support the development projects, and assurance on ending the conflict. For the Egyptian Sudanese relations, there’s recommendation to implement the strategic agreements between the two countries, in addition to praising the role of Egypt in the conflict. In this regard, it’s said that it’s important to have civil initiative to the settlement of the conflict. On the 11th of October, the council held a meeting to framing the initiative that is presented by Ambassador Dr. Salah Halima.