Symposium on “The war in Ukraine… developments and prospects”

On February 25, 2024, ECFA held a symposium on the “War in Ukraine” to assess its latest developments and the prospects for its settlement, as it enters the third year since its outbreak. Ambassador Dr. Ezzat Saad, ECFA Director, Ambassador Youssef Zadeh, former Egyptian Ambassador to Ukraine and ECFA member, and Major General Dr. Salah El-Din Abdel Karim El-Gamasy, Academic Advisor to the Director of the Egyptian Military Academy and ECFA member, addressed the symposium; while Ambassadors Abdel Moneim Omar, Farouk Mabrouk, Nabil El-Araby, Ahmed Zein, Ahmed Fadel Yaqoub, Dr. Hazem Attia Allah, and Dr. Hassan Al-Hayawan participated in it.

The meeting indicated that what is taking place in Ukraine is indeed a “special military operation” and not a full or limited war. It went through the “quick victory” phase, whereby Russia attempted to achieve a lightning victory over Ukraine, but did not succeed, followed by the “counterattack” phase by Ukraine, which also proved to be a failure, then came the “active defense” phase, which is a phase in which drones are widely used to launch intense attacks against the enemy.

The symposium also indicated that the West has always been keen to win the war on Ukraine and turn it against Russia. On the other hand, Russia considers Ukraine a part of it. However, it is believed that with the change of the current U.S. administration, and Trump’s likely victory, the war in Ukraine will be forgotten, in exchange for focusing on other more important issues. There is no doubt that this will have a major negative impact on Western support in general for Ukraine vs. strengthening Russia’s sitution.

In addition, there are many indicators contributing to the decline of global interest in Ukraine, especially in Europe, including the repeated failure of the Ukrainian attack on the front, and the significant corruption inside Ukraine, all of this in addition to Russia’s tight control over eastern Ukraine, the Crimean Peninsula, and the port of Sevastopol, as well as the fact that Russia did not suffer in the way the West had hoped for from the sanctions imposed on it, and the U.S. military budget has been affected by the abundant aid to Ukraine. In light of these facts, it is likely that the parties will resort to the negotiating table to settle the armed conflict.

Regarding the impact of the aggression against Gaza on developments in Ukraine, the meeting mentioned that Russia is one of the beneficiaries of the aggression on Gaza, along with both China and Iran. Russia deliberately highlighted the idea of ​​Western double standards in connection with various conflicts, in order to achieve its interests. It also revealed the great extent of the militarization of American foreign policy, in exchange for the decline in diplomatic solutions, which consequently reveals its inability to provide appropriate political solutions as being a prestgious major power.