Symposium on “Ethiopia’s Policy in the Horn of Africa and Egypt-Ethiopia Relations”

On March 7, 2024, ECFA held a symposium on “Ethiopia’s Policy in the Horn of Africa and Egypt-Ethiopia Relations.” Speakers were: Ambassador Marwan Badr – ECFA’s African Affairs Committee Coordinator; Ambassador Dr. Salah Halima – Member of ECFA Board of Directors and ECFA’s Sudan Affairs Coordinator; and Professor Dr. El-Sayed Fleifel – ECFA Member, Professor of African Studies at Cairo University, and former Chairman of the African Affairs Committee of the House of Representatives. Ambassadors: Ezzat Saad, ECFA Director, Mohamed El-Ashmawy, Farouk Mabrouk, Mohamed Edris, Adel El-Salousi, Abdel Moneim Omar, Mohamed Mounir, and Ahmed Fadel Yaqoub also participated in the meeting.

The meeting indicated that Ethiopia is neither an ordinary nor a traditional country, and that it has been a country governed by a ruling elite since its inception. The ancient Kingdom of Axum was founded on a Tigray elite, and then converted to Christianity in the fourth century AD, but it shed a lot of blood in its name. It was emphasized that Ethiopia does not view neighboring countries as states in the international legal sense, but rather as areas of influence, which foreign colonialism contributed to separating them from Ethiopia, according to border agreements, which Addis Ababa certainly does not take into account. This is in addition to the presence of a racist Ethiopian perspective towards its neighbors, to an extent that it coincides with Zionist racism.

Accordingly, the features of “expansion”, the attempt to subjugate neighboring peoples, and to restore ancient glory, are closely related to Ethiopian history. Regarding Egypt-Ethiopia relations, it was emphasized that they are deeply rooted in history, but they are mostly characterized by tension, while the prevailing element in the course of these relations was  – in the past and still is – primarily the Blue Nile River. In addition to the Grand Renaissance Dam, in which Ethiopia violated the agreements it concluded with the two downstream countries (Egypt and Sudan) through the unilateral approach, and imposing a fait accompli that it followed in the process of filling and operation, which carries with it risks related to life and existence in both downstream countries, Ethiopia was forming and is still a major driving force towards the entry into force of the Entebbe Agreement, which Egypt and Sudan did not sign, so that Addis Ababa would have the upper hand in the River waters. This is while the participants stressed that Ethiopia does not take into account any texts related to the Nile waters, and that the agreements it concludes are only for the sake of managing the work at the present time.

Regarding the memorandum of understanding that Ethiopia signed with the separatist region of Somaliland, it is noted that the memorandum is about a “sovereign” sea port in the Somaliland region to establish a military base and commercial activities, which means that it is an integral part of the territory of Ethiopia, in exchange for Ethiopian recognition of the independent Republic of Somaliland. Therefore, condemnation and rejection of this step by the international community were strong. This illegal Ethiopian presence is comparable to its Israeli counterpart, which usurped a land and established the port of Eilat on it as an outlet to the Red Sea. It is feared that such Ethiopian behavior, which is categorically unacceptable, will open the door to many separatist movements that are rife in the region to call for independence, leading to increased tensions and armed conflicts and undermining the sovereignty of the region’s states.

Moreover, the participants affirmed Egypt’s full right to self-defense, with regard to the Ethiopian Dam, after exhausting all political means that Cairo has resorted to for more than a decade, including the African Union, international mediation, the UN Security Council, and others. The sufficient argument for this is the fear of serious harm to Egypt and its people, particularly during periods of drought, and especially in light of the absence of a binding legal agreement for the three countries, including Ethiopia, that guarantees that all of their interests will not be harmed. This can also be based on the Declaration of Principles signed by the three countries in 2015.